Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Clinical Research Oriented Workshop (CROW) Meeting: November 15, 2017



Present:   Levi Bonnell, Justine Dee, Nancy Gell, Kairn Kelley, Ben Littenberg, Gail Rose, Connie van Eeghen

Start Up: NYT Article on When the Revolution Came for Amy Cuddy (2017) and the reality of using P values
1.                   P-Curve: A Key to the File Drawer, Simonsohn, 2014
a.       A P value has 3 parts: n, variance, effect size
b.       If effect is 0, then p will vary from about 0 to almost 1, evenly distributed, across all possible values of p
c.       If effect is strong, then p will vary in a right skewed curve across all possible values of p
d.       Remember: the p value is not about the hypothesis, it is about the data underlying the hypothesis.  It tells you if the data are convincing but it does not tell you if the hypothesis is convincing.
2.                   What are the assumptions that allow us to use a p value
a.       The assumptions of the test selected for analysis were met
b.       Representative selection of subjects
c.       Independent results
d.       Focused on the hypothesis
e.       Methods were conducted with integrity
f.        Asks one question, and one question only
                                                   i.      Alternatively, avoid the garden of forking paths to get one through the garden to a gate you like
                                                 ii.      i.e. do not explore the data before testing the data
3.                   Will Bayesian statistics fix this?
a.       Not necessarily.  It may help, in getting rid of the confidence interval process. It does not test how good the hypothesis is.
b.       What it does: given what I know before the study, and what I learned from the study, here’s the next estimate of the interval around the correct answer to the hypothesis about the effect of interest.

4.                   Next Workshop Meeting(s): Wednesdays, 11:30 p.m. – 12:45 p.m., at Given Courtyard South Level 4.
a.       Nov 22: cancelled
b.       Nov 29: Kairn Kelley – application for Pathways Mentorship Program
c.       Dec 6: Field trip to Research Tapas on “Research and Reproducibility”
d.       Future topics:
a.       Juvena: protocol development
b.       LaMantia: predictors of successful R01 applications: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0155060

Recorder: Connie van Eeghen

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